India economy

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das gestures is making it clear that further rate hikes are likely. Punit PARANJPE / AFP Global market trends rarely turn on events in Mumbai. But signals emanating from Reserve Bank of India headquarters demonstrate why all that investors thought they knew about 2023 is going awry. On Thursday, As Das put it: "It is a pause in this meeting of the MPC and I have not said anything about the pivot. Whatever I said in the last meeting—that it is not a pivot," Das told reporters. The pivot in question is one the smartest of the smart money was convinced we’d see by now from Washington to Frankfurt to Mumbai. This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia registered its own surprise. On Tuesday, it defied expectations with a 25 basis-point rise in the benchmark rate to 4.1%. RBA Governor Philip Lowe says a pivot away from rate hikes will "depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve." He added that “some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe.” Again, not at all what many investors were convinced they knew about 2023. Might the same be true of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand? After the rate hike in Sydney, economists wondered whether RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr over in Wellington is wrong to argue the official cash rate won’t need to rise above 5.5% to tame inflation. It matters because the RBA and RBNZ are often seen as bellwethers for the directi...

Recent government data revealed that India's GDP grew by 6.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022-23 beating Street estimates. For the entire fiscal 2022-23, the growth rate came in at 7.2 per cent underscoring the country's economic resilience amid geopolitical conflicts and global headwinds. India's GDP has reached $3.75 trillion in 2023, from around $2 trillion in 2014; moving from 10th largest to 5th largest economy in the world. India is now being called a Bright Spot in the global economy. Additionally, “Private consumption has caught up with the pre-pandemic trend. It is almost as though the pandemic did not happen hurting consumption of households. The catch up has been swift. Of course, mainly driven by urban consumption," said CEA Nageswaran. Recently, ratings agency Moody's estimated the Indian economy to Also Read: India, he said, has a high growth potential and its credit strengths include a stable domestic financing base for government debt, as well as a sound external position. "We expect India's growth to come in around 6-6.3 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, which remains relatively flat from the 6.1 per cent recorded in the final quarter of fiscal 2022-23," Fang said. "As the government balances the commitment to longer-term fiscal sustainability against its more immediate priority of supporting the economy amid high inflation and weak global demand, and ahead of general elections due by May 2024, we expect some risks...

NEW DELHI: The Indian economy may have won the rounds against Covid-19, but there are new opponents in the ring now — rising prices, a sinking based on consumer price index ( ) has risen consistently for the past 7 months, reaching an 8-year high of 7.8% in April 2022 India's consumer price index (CPI) based inflation for April skyrocketed to an eight year high of 7.79% due to an increase in edible oil and This is the highest level of headline inflation since May 2014, when it had touched 8.33%. While rural inflation came in at 8.38% in April vis-a-vis 7.66% in March and 3.75%% in April 2021, urban inflation rose to 7.09% in April as against 6.12% in March and 4.71% in April 2021. null But, why has jumped? Food, weighted at 39%, is the most volatile component and one of the biggest movers of CPI inflation. Food inflation will be driven by the rising costs of production, surging international crop prices and extreme weather-related disruptions, noted a Crisil research. Prices of wheat and sugar (India’s major exports) and vegetable oils (a major import) have skyrocketed in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war. The recent ban on palm oil exports by Indonesia may make already expensive edible oils even costlier. At the same time, food production costs are rising. Farm input costs, measured as a weighted index of specific sub-components of the wholesale price index (WPI), jumped 20.1% on-year in fiscal 2022. The costs were driven by diesel (52.2% in March 2022), fertiliser (7.8%...

BENGALURU, Aug 29 (Reuters) - India likely recorded strong double-digit economic growth in the last quarter but economists polled by Reuters expected the pace to more than halve this quarter and slow further toward the end of the year as interest rates rise. Asia's third-largest economy is grappling with persistently high unemployment and inflation, which has been running above the top of the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band all year and is set to do so for the rest of 2022. Growth this quarter is predicted to slow sharply to an annual 6.2% from a median forecast of 15.2% in Q2, supported mainly by statistical comparisons with a year ago rather than new momentum, before decelerating further to 4.5% in October-December. The median expectation for 2022 growth was 7.2%, according to an Aug. 22-26 Reuters poll, but economists said that the solid growth rate masks how rapidly the economy was expected to slow in coming months. "Even as India remains the fastest-growing major economy, domestic consumption will perhaps not be strong enough to drive growth further as unemployment remains high and real wages are at a record low level," said Kunal Kundu, India economist at Societe Generale. "By supporting growth through investment, the government has only fired on one engine while forgetting about the impetus which domestic consumption provides. This is why India's growth is still below its pre-pandemic trend." The economy has not grown fast enough to accommodate some 12 millio...

NEW DELHI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - India is better placed than many other emerging economies to weather the impact of global headwinds, the World Bank said on Tuesday, revising up its growth forecast for the country to 6.9% for fiscal 2022 from an earlier estimate of 6.5%. The estimate was within the government's own recent guidance. Asia's third-largest economy, which Like many developing economies, India is confronting inflation following a surge in global food and fuel prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. That has prompted the central bank to raise policy interest rates while warning about the impact of an international economic slowdown. "India's economy has been remarkably resilient to the deteriorating external environment," said Auguste Tano Kouame, World Bank's country director, while releasing the India Development Update Report. Strong tax collections, forex reserves and available policy space, along with prudent macroeconomic management, helped make India's economy resilient to deal with a financial crisis, he said. "However, continued vigilance is required as adverse global developments persist," he said, warning that a deteriorating global environment would impact India's growth prospects. The World Bank trimmed its growth forecast for India to 6.6% from 7% earlier for fiscal 2023/24, which will begin in April. India, like its global peers, has been plagued by higher commodity prices and interest rates by central banks worldwide. However, the...

• India's gross domestic product has touched the $3.75 trillion-mark in 2023, up from around $2 trillion in 2014 • The Finance Ministry further stated that India is the fifth largest economy in the world • India's GDP stood at $3,737 billion in current price terms, lower than the USA ($26,854), China ($19,374 billion), and Germany ($4,309 billion) India's gross domestic product (GDP) has touched the $3.75 trillion-mark in 2023, up from around $2 trillion in 2014. The development was confirmed by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's office in a now-deleted tweet. The Finance Ministry further stated that India is the fifth largest economy in the world. India's GDP stood at $3,737 billion in current price terms, lower than the USA ($26,854), China ($19,374 billion), and Germany ($4,309 billion). India's GDP at current prices ranks above the UK ($3,159 billion), France ($2,924 billion), Canada ($2,089 billion), Russia ($1,840 billion), and Australia ($1,550 billion) at current prices. The now-deleted tweet read: "India's GDP has reached $3.75 trillion in 2023, from around $2 trillion in 2014; moving from 10th largest to 5th largest economy in the world. India is now being called a Bright Spot in the global economy." Meanwhile, ratings agency Moody’s on Sunday forecasted Indian economy to grow at 6 per cent to 6.3 per cent in the June quarter. Moody’s prediction is much lower than the 8 per cent growth predicted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week. Moody’s Inves...

Synopsis The Indian economy has undergone a large structural shift in the last eight years and is currently the 5th largest economy in the world after overtaking the United Kingdom. Going ahead, India is expected to pip Germany in 2027 and Japan by 2029 at the current rate of growth, as per a State Bank of India (SBI) research report. The Indian The path taken by India since 2014 reveals India is likely to get the tag of 3rd largest economy in 2029, a movement of 7 places upwards since 2014 when India was ranked 10th, according to a research report from the State Bank of India's Economic Research Department. India should surpass Germany in 2027 and most likely Japan by 2029 at the current rate of growth. India, a former British colony, leapt past the India's GDP growth in Q1 FY23 was 13.5 per cent. At this rate, India is likely to be the fastest growing economy in the current fiscal. Interestingly, even as estimates of India's GDP growth rate for FY23 currently range from 6.7 per cent to 7.7 per cent, we firmly believe that it is immaterial. In a world that is ravaged by uncertainties, we believe 6 per cent to 6.5 per cent growth is the new normal, the report noted. The Indian economy is forecast to grow more than 7% this year. A world-beating rebound in Indian stocks this quarter has just seen their weighting rise to the second spot in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, trailing only China’s. (With agency inputs) Don’t miss out on ET Prime stories! Get your daily dose of bu...